Note: Below is a Fantasy NASCAR Bristol Motor Speedway preview article from Wheels (@DK_Wheels), PJ Frappier (@PJFrapDFS), and other members of the Power Hour DFS (@PowerHourDFS) crew.
For more Fantasy NASCAR insight from them, CLICK HERE
It's the Bristol Night Race Baby! The high-banked, half-mile oval is home to two of the best races on the NASCAR schedule with fans and drivers alike all looking forward to the excitement that is short track racing.
Bristol is known as "The Last Great Colosseum" because well, once that green flag drops you are literally battling for every inch lap after lap for 500 laps. YES PLEASE! 500 laps here really tests just about every ability a driver has whether that is how to pass, how to navigate lap traffic, how to avoid wrecks, concentration, and probably the biggest one; how to handle your temper. There won't be one driver that leaves the track on Saturday night that didn't yell into the radio about someone or some incident on track.
Every driver wants to put a Bristol win on their resume and they are going to have to tap into all of their abilities to do so.
Now, let's take a closer look at our top daily fantasy sports (DFS) scorers at Bristol Motor Speedway from last season & earlier this year in 2018:
2017 Spring:
- Kyle Larson - 110.5 DK pts (Dominator)
- Finishing Position: 38 pts
- Dominator: 5 pts
- Place Differential: -5 pts
- Martin Truex Jr - 104.5 DK pts (Dominator)
- Finishing Position pts: 36 pts
- Dominator pts: 73.5 pts
- Place Differential pts: -5 pts
- Jimmie Johnson - 96.75 DK pts (Dominator)
- Finishing Position pts: 46 pts
- Dominator pts: 40.75 pts
- Place Differential pts: +10 pts
2017 Fall:
- Kyle Busch - 145 DK pts (Dominator)
- Finishing Position: 46 pts
- Dominator: 82 pts
- Place Differential: 17 pts
- Erik Jones - 135.5 DK pts (Dominator)
- Finishing Position pts: 42 pts
- Dominator pts: 94.5 pts
- Place Differential pts: -1 pts
- Kevin Harvick - 70.5 DK pts (Place Differential)
- Finishing Position pts: 36 pts
- Dominator pts: 13.5 pts
- Place Differential pts: 21 pts
2018 Spring:
- Kyle Larson - 150.5 DK pts (Dominator)
- Finishing Position: 42 pts
- Dominator: 104.5 pts
- Place Differential: +4 pts
- Kyle Busch - 104.25 DK pts (Dominator)
- Finishing Position pts: 46 pts
- Dominator pts: 58.25 pts
- Place Differential pts: 0 pts
- Kevin Harvick - 79.5 DK pts (Place Differential)
- Finishing Position pts: 37 pts
- Dominator pts: 10.5 pts
- Place Differential pts: +32 pts
Kyle Busch - It's easy to plug any of the "Big 3" in each week, but this week Rowdy definitely gets the top mention as he is coming off back-to-back Bristol wins. Not only is his current and season form peaking, but he also owns the top two overall DraftKings scores here all-time (since loop-data started) and three of the top four overall.
Kyle Larson - Larson is clearly behind the Big 3 this season, but there is no denying his ability to race. As he has stated, this is his favorite track and the numbers really stick out here lately. He's led 472 laps over his last 3 Bristol races, which is more than the Big 3 COMBINED over that stretch!
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - It has been a less than stellar year for Ricky, but for whatever reason Bristol is a place where he has always done well and there's no reason to believe that doesn't continue this weekend... unless of course he lives up to his nickname "Wrecky"! But I'll take my chances with two top 5's over his last four and three top 10s during that stretch to go along with his series best 10.3 avg finish.
**As a disclaimer for this next section, a lot of DraftKings (DK) plays are dependent on Qualifying and Practice speeds, but we want to give you our initial thoughts on 2 Dominators, 2 Value Plays and 1 Punt Play**
ROSTER CONSTRUCTION
Historically at Texas we have seen anywhere from one to four dominators, but we will be focusing on a solid two dominators with a potential third backdoor dominator that is likely to finish high. Over the last three years (six races) we have seen at least three drivers score 20+ in five of the last six; the exception being in 2015 when Keselowski was a single dominator accounting for 56% of the total dominator points (the next highest that year only scored 14 dominator points).
DOMINATORS
Dominators are drivers who earn bonus points by dominating the race through laps lead and running the fastest laps during the race.
PJ's Dominator:
- Kyle Larson ($11,400)
- Lead laps in three straight races here
- Bristol is the track that Kyle has the most laps lead for his career
- One of the best at searching around for the groove and that will be huge on Saturday night
- Kyle Busch ($12,300)
- Odds on favorite and should be
- Has lead chunks of many Bristol races, he even led 156 laps from P18 starting spot in the night race last year
- Has 7 Cup wins here
Wheels Dominators:
- Kyle Busch ($12,300)
- Has three of the top four DK scores ever posted including the top two overall scores... if he goes off like he's known to do, you'll need him in your lineup... period!
- Season form is peaking, as well as recent form, winning consecutive Bristol races...day or night, Rowdy is the favorite this weekend
- Kyle Larson ($11,400)
- Leading 200+ laps in two of the last three is enough for me to buy in...however, both of the 200+ races came in the day!
- His upside is equal to Rowdy, for $900 less, I'll be taking some stabs for sure!
Adam's Dominator:
- Joey Logano ($9,600)
- Logano knows his way around Bristol, he has won two of the last four night races here. He has led more than 290 laps since the 2014-night race. Only one DNF in 19 starts and has finished no worse than 13th in his last six races here. A great way to get off the Kyle Busch train and find your sneaky dominator.
David's Dominator:
- Kevin Harvick ($12,000)
- Seven wins this season and already in playoff form. Wins and playoff points is all Team 4 cares about!
- Has qualified outside the top 10 in four straight Bristol races, which will provide for solid place PD with laps led potential. Started 39th and finished 7th in the 2018 spring Bristol race.
- Harvick has led laps in three of the last five Bristol races, including 128 laps in the 2016 race
VALUE PLAYS
Value plays are the drivers who usually start in the middle to rear of the field that can stay clean, move up, and gain place differential points. Most importantly get you a good finishing position at the end of the race.
PJ's Value:
- Ricky Stenhouse ($7,800)
- This is RIcky's best track outside of the restrictor plate tracks
- Has never finished worse than 21st and has had a positive place differential in nine of his 11 career races here
- 4th in the Spring and that was no fluke - this is his chance at stealing a race and getting in the playoffs
- Trevor Bayne ($5,900)
- Fits in the punt section as well, but this is Trevor's best track
- In the three night races he has run, he has an average of +10 place differential spots. That is pretty damn good for this price.
- Worst finish in the night race is 15th.
Wheels Value:
- Erik Jones ($8,300)
- ..too...cheap...the guy has legit dominator upside and led 260/500 laps last time here under the lights!
- Will be mega chalk, but it's as close to a lock as you can get for me.
- Jimmie Johnson ($8,700)
- With people paying up for the Big 3 and Larson, it's hard to believe Jimmie will draw much ownership and with his season struggles, it makes complete sense.
- BUT, he has posted scores of 50+ in seven of his last eight and even during his "2018 struggles" he scored 68 here in the spring.
Adam's Value:
- Ryan Newman ($6,600)
- Finishing top ten in 18 of his 33 starts at Bristol, Newman is a great play. Only three DNF's in the 33 starts, and an average finish of 15.8. He also finished 10th in the spring race and 6th in the previous night race. Look for Newman to have a great night.
David's Value:
- Ryan Newman ($6,600)
- Bristol is one of Newman's best tracks posting five top 10 efforts in the last seven Bristol races. Started 30th and finished 10th in the 2018 spring Bristol race.
- Newman is in must-win territory as we get closer to the 2018 NASCAR Playoffs. Bristol gives him a viable winning opportunity.
- Newman is priced way too low on DraftKings this week, compared to his past performance and the options in the same pricing tier
PUNT PLAYS
Punt plays are your $6K & under drivers who usually start in the 30's and can move up a couple spots, maybe break into the top 25-30 if all goes well. Most of all your punts allow you to jam in multiple Dominators into your lineup to cover your bases since there are many occasions that a race will have multiple Dominators.
PJ's Punt:
- Matt DiBenedetto ($5,300)
- By far Matt's best track historically
- Has positive place differential in EVERY race he has run here (7)
- This is home to his best career finish
Wheels Punt:
- Trevor Bayne ($5,900)
- He's got 5x value in six straight Bristol races, and it's no secret that he's got a fire lit underneath him with all of the Matt Kenseth seat time while he is essentially driving for his next job...or a job period!
Adam's Punt:
- Trevor Bayne ($5,900)
- Love Bayne at Bristol, finishing 7th in the night race last year, and finishing higher then he has qualified every race except dating back to the spring race in 2011. Average finish of 17th and has completed a little over 99% of laps here. Sign me up!
David's Punt:
- Trevor Bayne ($5,900)
- Average finish of 11.3 in the last three Bristol fall races.
- Has completed 99.20% of the laps in Bristol races. Due to numerous drivers wrecking out, you want your punt plays to finish the race, and that's exactly what Bayne does at Bristol.
- Bayne continues to fight for his Monster Cup career. A solid top 15 at Bristol would help keep him running in NASCAR's premier series.
Good luck everyone. It's Bristol Baby!
