Note: Below is a Fantasy NASCAR ISM Raceway, Phoenix preview article from Wheels (@DK_Wheels) and PJ (@PJFrapDFS) of the Power Hour DFS (@PowerHourDFS) crew.
For more Fantasy NASCAR insight from them, CLICK HERE
Race number four on the Monster Energy Cup Series schedule brings us to the desert! ISM Raceway is a very unique track and it certainly takes a lot to be able to win at this place. The track itself is essentially a low-banked one mile "reverse" tri-oval. I see it as a reverse tri-oval because of the unique backstretch here. BUT that is actually no longer going to be the case after this weekend's race as they are moving the start finish line to the current backstretch to make that the new front stretch to give it more of a traditional feel.
We saw last year in the spring race here that brakes and tires will be a big factor in the race this weekend. Countless drivers ended up complaining about their brakes going away on them last year, some even causing them to pop right front tires, because the brakes were getting so hot that they were melting the beads on the tires. Because you are braking so hard here each and every lap, this will certainly be a concern going into this weekend. Last week we saw that aerodynamics played a big part in the race, don't expect to hear the words "aero" uttered on the broadcast this week. This has more of a local short track feel and the cars who can get through these tricky flat corners the best will be the ones fighting for the win come Sunday afternoon.
Let's take a look at how last year's top Fantasy NASCAR Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) drivers did on the Score Cards:
- Spring
- Kyle Busch - 103 DraftKings (DK) pts
- Chase Elliott - 80 DK pts
- Ryan Newman - 77.5 DK pts
- Fall
- Chase Elliott - 60.5 DK pts
- Erik Jones - 57.5 DK pts
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr - 55.5 DK pts
Kevin Harvick - Harvick has eight Phoenix wins under his belt (27% of his starts), which is four more than the next closest driver all-time. During that time, he has led an astonishing 1,484 laps! The most bizarre part about that stat is that he didn't even lead a single lap here in 2017, but as you've all seen this year, Harvick is clicking on all cylinders and will be looking for his 9th Phoenix win on Sunday.
Chase Elliott - As you look over those 2017 numbers, it's pretty evident that Chase ran pretty well here last year as he finished 2nd overall in the Spring and took home the top overall DraftKings score in the Fall. Chase will be looking to rebound this week after getting caught up in Kurt Busch's mess last weekend.
Kyle Larson - Larson seems to be leading the pack of Chevy's just like he was last season. He could easily be overlooked this weekend with Harvick stealing all of the Dominator attention and Larson coming off a blown engine that resulted in a last place finish last fall in the Playoffs.
Download this episode (right click and save)
ROSTER CONSTRUCTION
It isn't often that you have one driver dominate an entire race start to finish, especially with the introduction of stage racing. BUT, that's what we have seen the last two weeks and now that Harvick comes to Phoenix on a two-race win streak…in dominating fashion, it makes you wonder if you really need more than one dominator!?
But, the moment that you start building lineups strictly around bias is the moment you start losing, so I will be sticking to a 2-3 dominator build, but if you are building multiple lineups I guess I couldn't fault you for building a Harvick plus value only lineup.
DOMINATORS
Dominators are drivers who earn bonus points by dominating the race through laps lead and running the fastest laps during the race.
PJ's Dominators:
- Kyle Busch ($10,500)
- Five straight top 10's here with four of those being top 5's
- Lead 114 laps here last spring only to lose the race due to a late race caution
- In 25 career races here, Kyle has a whopping 17 top 10's
- Denny Hamlin ($9,200)
- Lead 193 laps in the most recent at Phoenix before Chase Elliott got his revenge
- Prior to that late race incident, Denny had recorded four straight top 10's here
- Similar to Busch, in 25 Phoenix races Denny has recorded 14 top 10's
Wheels Dominators:
- Harvick ($11,400)
- Harvick has been a top six overall DK scorer in nine straight Phoenix races.
- He scored the most DK points in six straight from the Fall of 2013 to the Spring of 2016
- Not to mention Harvick has led nearly 50% of the laps this young season en route to back to back wins
- Kyle Busch ($10,500)
- 65.8 DK points over his last three years in Phoenix, all of which were top seven DK scoring efforts and is actually outscoring Harvick at his own track over his last three races here
- Quietly coming off a runner up finish in Las Vegas
VALUE PLAYS
Value plays are the drivers who usually start in the middle to rear of the field that can stay clean, move up, and gain place differential points. Most importantly get you a good finishing position at the end of the race.
PJ's Value plays:
- Ty Dillon ($6,400)
- Three straight top 20's here, two of three that have come with big place differential as well (18 and 13)
- Finished on the lead lap in each of those three races
- This is Ty's best overall track and could be a very solid value this week
- Erik Jones ($8,300)
- Jones has back-to-back top 10's here coming into this weekend
- The team Jones is currently driving for led 62 laps and won the fall race last year
- This is right up there with Bristol as one of Jones' best tracks
Wheels Value Plays:
- Erik Jones ($8,300)
- Jones averaged 48.25 DK points in his rookie year while putting up 39 in the Spring and followed it up with 57.5 in the Fall
- Jones is underpriced, I a truly believe he will be a $9k driver by midseason if not sooner
- Ty Dillon ($6,400)
- Much like Jones, Dillon had an impressive rookie season at Phoenix with scores of 27 (Spring) and 51.5 (fall)
- If Ty puts up another qualifying effort like he did in Las Vegas, he looks to be a great early week value.
PUNT PLAYS
Punt plays are your $6k & under drivers who usually start in the 30's and can move up a couple spots, maybe break into the top 25-30 if all goes well. Most of all your punts allow you to jam in multiple Dominators into your lineup to cover your bases since there are many occasions that a race will have multiple Dominators.
PJ's Punt:
- Matt DiBenedetto ($4,900)
- In all of Matt's six races here he has had a positive place differential
- Outside of the Super Speedways and Bristol, this is Matt's best track
- With DraftKings raising the prices at the top the actually lowered Matt and this could be a great way to save a bunch of salary
Wheels Punt:
- Matt DiBenedetto ($4,900)
- How fitting! The man that the PowerHour team is raising money to support is the punt of the week!
- After a SOLID 22nd place finish in Las Vegas, his price dropped???
- 20+ in three of his last four and that's really what you are looking for in a punt, especially one under $5k on a week where you can't miss out on your Dominator points.