Note: Below is a Fantasy NASCAR Richmond Raceway preview article from Wheels (@DK_Wheels) and PJ (@PJFrapDFS) of the Power Hour DFS (@PowerHourDFS) crew.
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Race number 9 bring us to Richmond which means back to back short tracks! Yes please, may I have another!?
Richmond Raceway is a 3/4 mile D shaped short track. For years Richmond has been the last race before the playoffs and it has certainly been fun to watch the go to battle under the lights. However this year Richmond moves into the playoffs so this race is going to carry a little bit more importance. Teams will not only be trying to run well this weekend but also making sure they take plenty of notes so they can have an idea of what the car is going to need when the series comes back when it really matters.
Now, let's take a closer look at our top daily fantasy sports (DFS) scorers at Richmond Raceway from last season:
2017 Spring:
- Brad Keselowski - 132.5 DK pts (Dominator + Place Differential)
- Finishing Position: 42 pts
- Dominator: 77.5 pts
- Place Differential: +13 pts
- Denny Hamlin - 83.75 DK pts (Dominator + Place Differential)
- Finishing Position pts: 41 pts
- Dominator pts: 29.75 pts
- Place Differential pts: +13 pts
- Matt Kenseth - 67 DK pts (Dominator)
- Finishing Position pts: 21 pts
- Dominator pts: 68 pts
- Place Differential pts: -22 pts
2017 Fall:
- Martin Truex Jr - 100.5 DK pts (Dominator)
- Finishing Position: 24 pts
- Dominator: 91.5 pts
- Place Differential: -15 pts
- Kyle Larson - 77.25 DK pts (Dominator)
- Finishing Position pts: 46 pts
- Dominator pts: 28.25 pts
- Place Differential pts: +3 pts
- Ryan Newman - 68 DK pts (Place Differential)
- Finishing Position pts: 41 pts
- Dominator pts: 3 pts
- Place Differential pts: +24 pts
Kyle Busch/Kevin Harvick - Front and center of the NASCAR world right now and easily the two hottest drivers in NASCAR. Harvick with three consecutive wins and now Rowdy reels off consecutive wins, looking to match Harvick's three in a row this weekend. Both have stout Richmond numbers to go along with their current form; Harvick three top 5's over his last two seasons at Richmond and Rowdy has four wins and 15 T5's in 25 tries.
Denny Hamlin - Richmond has always been a place to target Hamlin, and this week is no different. He leads all current drivers in laps led with 1,600+ and yes, some of these stats are meaningless if they haven't been backing up their career numbers with their recent numbers, because of many variables from the cars to the tracks changing over the years; but Hamlin's current Richmond form is there as well with three top 5's and a win over his last two years and an average finish of 3.75 during that stretch.
Martin Truex Jr. - How can you leave Truex out of the mix? Gibbs/Furniture Row has combined to lead ~72% of the laps over the last four races here at Richmond… 72%!? Truex has accounted for ~24% of those himself, leading 391 laps. Between the non-eventful Martinsville race, the crazy/abnormal Texas race and the two-day Bristol race that collected Truex in one of the many wrecks, it appears people have forgotten the major gains that the #78 has found out on the west coast not long ago.
ROSTER CONSTRUCTION
**As a disclaimer for this next section, a lot of DraftKings (DK) plays are dependent on Qualifying and Practice speeds, but we want to give you our initial thoughts on two Dominators, two Value Plays and one Punt Play**
DOMINATORS
Dominators are drivers who earn bonus points by dominating the race through laps lead and running the fastest laps during the race.
PJ's Dominators:
- Denny Hamlin ($9,800)
- Five straight top-six6 finishes here
- Has an AVERAGE finishing position of 9.5 for his entire career
- Has led laps here in 15 of his 23 career races
- Has led more than 1,500 laps here; next closest is Kyle Busch with just more than 1,000 and that was in two more races
- Kyle Busch ($11,400)
- Has an AVERAGE finishing position of 7.5 for his entire career
- 18 out of his 25 visits here have resulted in top 10's
- Like Harvick was really early, Busch is just flat out the best car right now
Wheels Dominators:
- Kyle Busch ($11,400)
- Joe Gibbs has had its way at Richmond as of late, and current form is as good as ever with Rowdy, looking for his 3rd consecutive win
- 4 DK avg all-time, and the leading car in that Joe Gibbs garage, so look for Rowdy to be at the point this weekend under the lights!
- Martin Truex Jr ($10,500)
- Joe Gibbs & Furniture row have dominated the laps led and Martin has led 24% of the laps over the last four races here
- I feel like Truex could go a little overlooked this weekend, but I am looking forward to playing him this weekend!
- 9 DK avg (last three years); however, most of those points have been in the fall race, but again I think he goes over looked simply because of recency bias…but has the upside to run away with the top score here under the lights.
VALUE PLAYS
Value plays are the drivers who usually start in the middle to rear of the field that can stay clean, move up, and gain place differential points. Most importantly get you a good finishing position at the end of the race.
PJ's Values:
- Clint Bowyer ($8,000)
- 12 career top 10's here in 25 races
- Multiple top 10's in WAY worse equipment
- If they are going to keep him this cheap, I will just keep playing him
- Daniel Suarez ($6,900)
- Only has two career starts here, but went P7 and P12
- Finishing position is going to matter a lot this week and to have a near top-10 car at this price is crazy
- Short tracks have proven to be Daniel's best track type and its Gibbs equipment. TOO CHEAP
Wheels Value Plays:
- Daniel Suarez ($6,900)
- We will continue to play Daniel regardless of the situation at this low of a price in a Joe Gibbs car!
- Daniel had a great Bristol race after many thought his injured hand would play a factor, but it held up nicely and yet his price is still down in the weeds!?
- 8 DK avg in his two races last season, plus the fact that Joe Gibbs has dominated the laps led at Richmond as of late and look for Suarez to be a solid value early on
- Jamie McMurray ($7,400)
- McMurray seems to keep popping up as a value play between his price and his poor qualifying efforts, and as his price stays down we will be looking at him early on again this week.
- 6 DK avg (last three years), which on average easily exceeds the 5x value that were looking to achieve from all of our drivers
PUNT PLAYS
Punt plays are your $6K & under drivers who usually start in the 30's and can move up a couple spots, maybe break into the top 25-30 if all goes well. Most of all your punts allow you to jam in multiple Dominators into your lineup to cover your bases since there are many occasions that a race will have multiple Dominators.
PJ's Punt:
- David Ragan ($5,500)
- We saw what this team did last week at a short track and he's typically not a steep track guy
- Flat tracks are where I like Ragan and this fits the bill
- Too good of a driver at a place that doesn't require all the speed in the world, he is firmly in play again this week.
Wheels Punt:
- Michael McDowell ($5,200)
- This price is just silly! Draftkings will never get the pricing right for Front Row Motorsports, so we shall just keep taking advantage of it!
- McDowell had a STOUT car at Bristol all weekend leading up to the race and ended up wrecking out what could have been a T10 car! His teammate David Ragan also had a solid car at Bristol